There are 5.8 billion acres of permafrost across the Northern Hemisphere. About 20 percent are susceptible to abrupt thaw, or about 1.1 billion acres. Alaska covers 375 million acres. This is a thermokarst lake, or permafrost collapse lake on the Denali Highway near the Thompson River. Thermokarst means "heat hole." The icicles are just what happens in the fall in Alaska. The rug-like material draping over the edge of the collapse crater is tundra, here composed mostly of mosses and lichens. Permafrost thaw lakes like this abound along the Glenn Highway. Permafrost Collapse, Glenn Highway, Alaska: More than half of known tipping points are active: Arctic sea ice, Greenland Ice Sheet, boreal forests, permafrost collapse, Gulf Stream, Amazon, corals, West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Parts of East Antarctica. Lenton 2019, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0 Permafrost collapse, Glenn Highway, Alaska. “We must admit that we have underestimated the risks of unleashing irreversible changes, where the planet self-amplifies global warming… This is what we now start seeing, already at 1 C." Lenton 2019, U. of Exeter press release. Permafrost changing to water is a tipping reaction. Small inputs of heat over long time periods can cause a sudden threshold crossing between states. It takes 289 times more heat to change ice into water than it does to change the temperature of ice. This is the heat of fusion and it is irreversible. Permafrost can be as much as 90 percent ice. It is this high-ice permafrost that can easily collapse. What remains is pure chaos and it doesn't get better for a long, long time because permafrost is deep. Permafrost is overlain by an active layer of soil and organic material one to two feet deep, that thaws every summer and refreezes every winter. This is where plant roots occur and when deeper thaw occurs, the previously rock-hard, ice-filled soil turns to mush and trees fall over. Natali 2019 says permafrost emissions 2004 to 2017 were 2.3 gigatons CO2 on average per year. Because permafrost was likely not collapsing in 2004, it is very likely that emissions are far more than 2.3 gigatons CO2 today, plausibly rivalling the 7 gigatons CO2 from transportation globally. There are over 5 billion acres of permafrost across the Great North. Up to 20 percent of permafrost is currently susceptible to abrupt collapse and Natali 2019 says permafrost is now emitting 2.3 Gt CO2 annually, and methane is not yet quantified. Dalton Highway, or the "Haul Road" for the Alaska Pipeline. For 40 years permafrost thaw has been an issue with the Haul Road. The road opened up the forest to more sunlight on permafrost causing it to thaw. Today however, arctic temperatures are rising at up to four times the global average. The amount of permafrost collapse is staggering. Over 1 billion acres are at risk of abrupt collapse and likely in some form of collapse today. Natali 2019 tells us permafrost emissions 2004 to 2017 were 2.3 gigatons greenhouse gases per year average. Because permafrost was likely not collapsing in 2004, and we know increasing warming is accelerating the collapse that is ongoing now, it is likely total emissions from collapsing permafrost rival the 7 gigatons of emissions from all of transportation globally every year. This collapse is along the Glenn Highway in southeastern Alaska. Bear River, British Columbia Black spruce kill from permafrost collapse, Southern Yukon. Permafrost collapse is one of the tipping points identified recently as being active and irreversible. Lenton 2019, University of Exeter press release, In 2007 when we filmed permafrost thaw in Alaska, we had to ask the ice scientists at University of Alaska Fairbanks where it was. It was there and pretty bad, but just nowhere near as common as in 2018. It didn't line the roads, but darned near in southeastern Alaska, up the Dalton Highway, and in Southern Yukon and Northern British Columbia. This is in Southern Yukon on the Alaska Highway. Black Spruce forests like this one seem particularly susceptible to permafrost collapse. This is probably because black spruce are the only tree that will grow on the 18 inches of unfrozen soil for a few months each summer. These sparsely forested areas just seem particularly prone to trouble. Covid-19 is a zoonotic disease from bats, but it has no contemporary genetic connection. It may be a radical genetic variant, but the virologists don't know yet. We know it's not engineered, that's obvious to the virologists. We know that zoonosis (animal to human disease transmission) is enhanced by animal crowding from from habitat destruction, and by more animal to human contact. We know that animals stressed by crowding are also being stressed by habitat degradation from climate warming. And then there is the 1 billion acres of permafrost that is likely in collapse right now, thawing out thousands of years of preserved organic material. Viruses can survive for a million years in permafrost. Today, permafrost collapse is emitting 2.3 gigatons of CO2 annually average from 2003 to 2017. If permafrost was stable in 2003, and we know that warming and permafrost thaw are both accelerating today, this means the total CO2 emissions are far in in excess of the annual average from 2003 to 2017, plausibly rivalling emissions from all of transportation globally. Very important, methane emissions from collapsing permafrost are not yet quantified, the collapse is just too new. This collapse was on the Alaska Highway in Southern Yukon. Southern Yukon Permafrost Collapse along the Alaska Highway. Permafrost can be a half mile thick in norhtern North America and nearly a mile deep in Siberia. There are over 5 billion acres of permafrost across the Great North. It can be over a half mile deep in North America and nearly a mile deep in Siberia. Over 1 billion acres is currently at risk of abrupt collapse and from 2003 to 2017, on average every year permafrost thaw is emitting 2.3 gigatons CO2. Methane has yet to be quantified. Permafrost infrastructure damage is not like most because it creates more than just major degradation. This crack in the Dalton Highway comes from permafrost collapse that is apparent in the background, causing the edges of the highway to sink into the permafrost thaw abyss. The road damage from permafrost thaw here on the Dalton Highway is obvious in the undulations in the pavement, But constant patching has muted the real damage. Look at the guard rail to see the full extent of damage, so far. The white stickup pipes are to identify this low spot in deep snow and show vehicles where the road is not. This is the permafrost collapse in same area as in the image of the big crack in the Dalton Highway. The full extent of the damage is seen here, plus in the distance on the curve you can see a significant subsidence of the Dalton Highway shoulder from thaw. Dalton Highway, just south of the Brooks Range. Permafrost collapse is not everywhere yet, but it is widespread. Dalton Highway, just south of the Brooks Range. Permafrost collapse is not everywhere yet, but it is widespread. Not everything is degraded with permafrost collapse. Moose prefer bogs. Beavers too. Some fish prefer an aquatic habitat and of course insects requiring aquatic habitat for reproduction. Waterfowl too, and otters. Permafrost collapse is widespread in southeast Alaska, but just now getting started with 2.3 gigatons CO2 emissions annually, averaged from 2003 to 2017. This means that today because permafrost thaw is increasing rapidly, the actual total likely rivals all of transportation cross the globe. Pathogens can remain viable in permafrost for one million years, making it a plausible that Covvid-19 was reanimated from the 1.2 billion acres of permafrost at risk of abrupt thaw and currently emitting 2.3 gigatons of Co2 annually. Another type of permafrost thaw near the MacLaren River on the Denali Highway. More permafrost thaw on the Denali Highway near the MaClaren River Permafrost can be over a half mile thick in Alaska and has just begun to collapse, emitting 2.3 gigatons CO2 annually on average from 2003 to 2017. If permafrost was stable and sequestering in 2003, and we know that the thaw is rapidly accelerating today, the annual emissions today are a far greater than 2.3 gigatons per year, and possible rival the 9 gigatons CO2 emissions emitted globally by the transportation sector. In addition methane emissions have yet to be quantified. The two radiators on top of each pipeline support are passive chlorine gas freezers. This is a really clever and quite old technology with no moving parts, capable of keeping permafrost frozen when the pipeline is full of hot oil. Without the freezers, the pipeline would topple over and break into pieces. The question is, when the permafrost melts all around the pipeline, will the freezers be strong enough to keep the pipeline frozen in? The answer is of course, not. Just how deep are these permafrost collapse lakes? And how much preserved organic material are they releasing? Viruses can live for a million years in ice. Permafrost accumulates at about an eighth or sixteenth of an inch per year and can be a half mile thick in North America and a mile thick in Siberia. There are 5 billion acres of permafrost and 1.2 billion are at immediate risk of or are currently in collapse. It takes 289 times more heat to melt ice from 32 to 33 degrees, than it does to change the temperature of ice one degree from say 28 to 29 degrees. This is called the heat of fusion. Once ice crosses this 289 times tipping point, collapse occurs and it can be extremely widespread.
